Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiDecember 31 9%4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
16
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
-4.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis16 May 26 16:14 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
Manifold MarketsWill part of the agreed ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine involve a minimum 10 year block on joining NATO or EU?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
Tahmin Kaynağı Karşılaştırması
- Polymarket üzerinde de mevcut — Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? · December 31, 70%