Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler
23 Tem 2026 16:00 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-2
Güncel topluluk tahminiMay 31 0%4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
11
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
evvelsi gün guncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis16 May 26 16:1431 Ara 26 23:59
Trendler
0%
0%
Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir
Seçilen sonuç
October 3114%
Platformları karşılaştır· December 31
Piyasa kalitesine, ardından likidite ve 24s hacme göre sıralanır
Polymarket üzerinde de mevcut
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
1.0%5ay
-1.0%25%
+0.5%13%
0%
+1 daha fazla sonuç
89 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik
Toplam Hacim₺42,9 Mn
24s Hacim₺372,9 B
POLYMARKETPolymarket üzerinde de mevcut
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
4.0%5ay
-1.0%36%
-4.0%19%
-1.5%8%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
89 • Yüksek kaliteOrta spreadYüksek likiditeYüksek belirsizlik
Toplam Hacim₺269,7 Mn
24s Hacim₺2,9 Mn
POLYMARKETKurallar
Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
Olasılıklar farklı piyasa yapıları, ücretler ve katılımcı havuzları nedeniyle değişiklik gösterebilir.
Büyük işlemler
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Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.