Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates 50%3 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
1
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis2 Nis 26 01:40 UTC31 Ara 28 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Size of largest company to fail due to cyber attacks by EoY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a company of at least $100M, $1B, etc. fail due to cyber attacks? (by EoY 2027)
Manifold MarketsWill the Ethereum L1 use quantum information transmission by 2035?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets October 31 - November 2, 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Nov 6, 2026 at 5pm EST?
KalshiKurallar
A new paper from Google demonstrates that there are procedures that break 256-bit ECDLP over secp256k1 with, optionally:
- ≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 90 million Toffoli gates
- ≤ 1450 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates
- This question asks if improvements will be made to this frontier by EoY 2028.