Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 68.3%
Tahminciler
4
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis23 Kas 25 16:52 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that, before January 1st 2028, at least one publicly released open‑weights model that can run on a single consumer GPU has capabilities comparable to Google’s Nano Banana Pro (Gemini 3 Pro Image), in the sense that it meets all of the base conditions and at least 3 of the 5 capability criteria below (with at least one of criteria D or E satisfied).
- Otherwise this market resolves NO.
- Base conditions (all must be true for the candidate model)
- For this market, a candidate model is any concrete model (including its required VAE / text encoder / diffusion backbone / LoRAs) that satisfies all of:
- Open weights
- The full weights needed for inference are publicly downloadable (behind at most a simple login and click‑through license), without per‑applicant approval or NDAs.
