Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 96.9%
Tahminciler
58
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis10 Mar 26 00:23 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a nuke be used offensively before the end of the year ?
Manifold MarketsNuclear weapon used offensively before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWhich actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWill Russia target Kyiv on?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated offensively against a target during 2026. "Offensive use" means deliberate detonation by a state or non-state actor as a weapon in an armed conflict or attack, excluding accidental detonation, testing, or defensive/retaliatory use in response to a prior nuclear attack.
- Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) confirming a nuclear detonation with offensive intent.
- The market creator will resolve based on available evidence at year-end.
- Military operations in 2025 occurred in three theaters under the shadow of nuclear weapons, with the Russia-Ukraine war featuring innovative military tactics and Russian nuclear threats.
- Russia revised its nuclear doctrine to signal a lower threshold for nuclear weapons use.