Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 87.9%
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49
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
18 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis19 Nis 26 02:14 UTC7 Oca 27 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketWill an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI Agent end of October?
PolymarketThird-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketAt the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
In order to resolve yes, all of the following items need to be established by preponderance of the evidence:
- The incident occurs in 2026.
- The company has a market cap (by stock price if public, by valuation of latest round if private) over $10 billion prior to the incident.
- The incident consists of damage inflicted by an AI agent which was intentionally activated by company insiders, but was not intended to damage the company.
- For example, a Claude Code instance that was intended to respond to customer service questions ends up irrecoverably deleting an important database.
- It doesn't matter if the agent framework is a public product or an internal company product.
Açık piyasalar
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 88% fiyatlıyor.
- Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 7 Ocak 2027.
- Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: In order to resolve yes, all of the following items need to be established by preponderance of the evidence: