Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 88.2%
Tahminciler
24
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli25 Şub 23 01:51 UTC2 Oca 27 07:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
Manifold MarketsWill "I am worried about near-term non-LLM AI devel..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill a completely AI-written novel win a Hugo Award by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill any US federal judge be impeached in 2026?
PredictItWill any US Federal or Statewide Midterm Election be within 0.01%?
PolymarketKurallar
A federal law in the United States that has been generated in full or in part using a large language model or AI will be passed by both the House of Representatives and the Senate, then go into legal effect before January 1, 2027.
- For the purposes of this market, 'generated in full or in part using a large language model' means that an AI system's output contributed substantively to at least one section of the final enacted legislation.
- The fact that it was written by an LLM or AI should be openly admitted to by the supporters or authors of the law, and must be the consensus view of its sponsors.
