Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 90.6%
Tahminciler
52
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
28 dakika önce güncellendi
5 Haz 24 00:43 UTC1 Oca 27 04:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Largest reported pay-package offered to an AI researcher before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill more than half the US population actively work with AI daily by 2027?
Manifold MarketsAI models will be able to complete 20-hour software engineering tasks in 2026
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner states:
- I make the following claim: it is strikingly plausible that by 2027, models will be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer.
- That doesn’t require believing in sci-fi; it just requires believing in straight lines on a graph.
- I will take "the work of an AI research/engineer" to mean all of the job duties of those roles, as we understand them today in 2024, but subject to small adjustments for the realities of 2027.
- Implicit in the claim behind this market is the idea that the world of 2027 could be strange enough that the claim no longer makes sense.
- I will use my best judgement.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 91% fiyatlıyor.
- Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2027.
- Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: In "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead", Leopold Aschenbrenner states: