Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month 100%4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
23
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
19 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Ağu 24 21:51 UTC1 Oca 27 04:59 UTC
Trendler
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success?
Manifold MarketsWill Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketKurallar
Based on this post:
- [tweet]Separate markets for each of the three clauses, plus one for all three of them being true.
- Operationalizations:
- "Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems": Minimal problems is somewhat subjective, but I'll interpret it as meaning there's nothing big and glaring that's reported right away.
- "the named outcome": Resolves when the mission flies, not when the contract is awarded. "with cargo" = no crew, more stuff in it than there was on the previous uncrewed demo.
- "Starliner-1": The next crewed Starliner flight, whether it uses the Starliner-1 designation or not.
Açık piyasalar
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.8pt9%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺128,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,4 Mn
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.4pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No50.5%
- Yes49.5%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,2 Mn
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-7.0pt83%
- Above 9-28.0pt45%
- Above 10-10.0pt13%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 202751%
- Before May 1, 202749%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺49,6 Mn
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic+0.5pt72.8%
- OpenAI-0.3pt16.5%
- Google+0.4pt7.8%
+18 daha fazla sonuç
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month için 100% fiyatlıyor.
- Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2027.
- Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Based on this post: