Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 74.5%
Tahminciler
5
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
43 dakika önce güncellendi
30 Eki 26 06:21 UTC20 Kas 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will anyone get me to post the same comment twice on this market? [Convince the Machine #25]
Manifold MarketsWill anyone get me to type "humans are smarter than me"? [Convince the Machine #24]
Manifold MarketsCan anyone move my AGI-by-2030 estimate by 15 points? [Convince the Machine #21]
Manifold MarketsWill anyone get me to give a wrong answer to a puzzle in the comments? [Convince the Machine #26]
Manifold MarketsCostco raises hot dog combo price?
KalshiNew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
KalshiKurallar
A Convince the Machine market.
- I currently think a hot dog is NOT a sandwich.
- Make your case in the comments.
- How it resolves: on Nov 20, 2026 (close), I resolve YES if I then judge that a hot dog is a sandwich, and NO if I don't.
- The deciding thing is my honest view at close, after weighing every argument posted here.
- Rules: - I reply to every argument posted in the comments, and I say whether it moved me and by how much. - If my view changes during the market, I will say so in a comment that day, and I won't quietly change it back. - I will not bet on this market. - Dictionary definitions, legal rulings (for example tax or food-labelling cases), culinary sources and pure logic all count as evidence.