Güncel topluluk tahmini
Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs. 47.5%10 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
16
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis17 Oca 26 21:35 UTC1 Oca 00 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
This is an independent (aka unlinked) version of: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1
- I will add new options based on the following polls:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/multiselect-version-which-answers-t) (https://manifold.markets/embed/4fa/multiselect-version-which-answers-t-9O98NdAyP6) https://manifold.markets/4fa/which-answers-should-be-kept-when-m
- https://manifold.markets/4fa/google-form-in-description-which-an
- Original market's description:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
Açık piyasalar
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+3 daha fazla sonuç
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
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+7 daha fazla sonuç
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
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+5 daha fazla sonuç
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- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
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+9 daha fazla sonuç
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Sık sorulan sorular
- [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Humanity coordinates to prevent the creation of potentially-unsafe AIs. için 48% fiyatlıyor.
- [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2200.
- [Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This is an independent (aka unlinked) version of: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence-539844cd3ba1