Güncel topluluk tahmini
Some year after 2040. 31.1%21 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
147
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
9 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis2 Tem 23 11:10 UTC16 Şub 41 13:48 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
If there exists a super-intelligent AI, would majority of AI researchers answer Yes to "Have we reached AGI?" ?
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KalshiKurallar
Superintelligent AGI: An AI system surpassing majority human intellect in most or all fields, capable of understanding, learning, and applying knowledge across various tasks beyond single-domain specialization.
- 'Majority of AI researchers' refers to 51% or more of active, globally published AI researchers recognized by reputable sources such as established research organizations, academic journals, or comprehensive surveys.
- The market resolves when such a survey points to a year (even retrospectively) where most AI researchers agreed on the existence of AGI.
- Non-reputable or small-scale surveys will be disregarded.
- If the survey indicates AGI was realized before the market's inception, the market resolves as N/A.