Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini2027 66.3%7 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
12
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
3 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis12 Ara 25 11:01 UTC31 Ara 30 23:59 UTC
Trendler
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Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on the automation rate reported on the Remote Labor Index leaderboard, defined as the percentage of projects where an AI's deliverable is judged at least as good as the human standard—whether a "reasonable client" would accept the work.
- The market resolves to the year in which the RLI automation rate first reaches or exceeds 80%, as reported on the official leaderboard at https://scale.com/leaderboard/rli.
- If the automation rate never reaches 80% by the end of 2030, the market resolves to "the named outcome."
- The Remote Labor Index is a benchmark that empirically measures the capability of AI agents to perform real-world, economically valuable remote work by evaluating AI agents on a broad, multi-sector collection of end-to-end projects sourced from professional freelance platforms, providing a direct comparison of AI agent performance against professional human-produced deliverables.
- As of the latest evaluation, the maximum automation rate across frontier AI agent frameworks is 2.5% on RLI projects.