Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini2026- 26.3%6 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
9
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis2 Ara 25 21:58 UTC30 Ara 30 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
Manifold MarketsWill any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI achieve superintelligence in music composition by 2026?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
The market resolves to the first year in which an AI system achieves above 90% on the single shot avg solve rate on all puzzles in the Sudoku benchmark hosted at https://pub.sakana.ai/sudoku/.
- Resolution will be determined by the official results published on that benchmark page.
- If no AI system reaches 90% accuracy by the end of 2030, the market resolves to "2031+".
- Top score as of 2025.12.02 is 33% by gpt-5 high.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 2026- için 26% fiyatlıyor.
- In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 30 Aralık 2030.
- In what year will an AI achieve 90%+ on Sudoku bench? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: The market resolves to the first year in which an AI system achieves above 90% on the single shot avg solve rate on all puzzles in the Sudoku benchmark hosted at https://pub.sakana.ai/sudoku/.