Güncel topluluk tahmini
2026 93.6%8 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
9
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Tem 25 07:13 UTC31 Ara 28 23:59 UTC
Trendler
0.5%
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketKurallar
SWE-bench Verified is a 500-task, human-vetted slice of the SWE-bench dataset that removes ambiguous or unsolvable issues.
- Each task corresponds to a real GitHub bug-fix; success is measured only by whether the submitted patch makes all repository tests pass.
- Reaching 95 % would imply an agent that can reliably read unfamiliar codebases, localise bugs, implement multi-file patches, and satisfy rigorous unit tests—approaching or surpassing strong human-engineer performance on day-to-day bug-fixing.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the year-bracket in which a fully automated AI system first records an average accuracy of 95 % or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark.
- Verification – The claim must be confirmed by either
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 2026 için 94% fiyatlıyor.
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2028.
- In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: SWE-bench Verified is a 500-task, human-vetted slice of the SWE-bench dataset that removes ambiguous or unsolvable issues.