Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Helped with >60% confidence 60.8%5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
13
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis30 Mar 23 02:50 UTC1 Oca 31 04:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/
- 90% chance of resolving to market probs; 10% chance (through RNG), I reach out to folks and look to average the opinions of a sample of AI x-risk ~macrostrategy folks (aiming for ~30% from frontier lab alignment and governance teams; ~15% each for relevant GovAI + Rethink Priorities + Open Philanthropy researchers; ~12.5% for each of Eliezer Yudkowsky and Buck Shlegris).
- Will make a good faith effort to iterate on resolution criteria in response to feedback during first week.
- Mar 30, 8:41am: In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed AI x-risk chances? → In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances?
Sık sorulan sorular
- In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 20 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Helped with >60% confidence için 61% fiyatlıyor.
- In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2031.
- In 2030, will we think FLI's 6 month pause open letter helped or harmed our AI x-risk chances? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/