In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
YZOne-Off1yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 82.2%
Tahminciler
595
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
7 dakika önce güncellendi
20 Şub 23 22:45 UTC2 Oca 28 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves positively if there is an AI which can succeed at a wide variety of computer games (eg shooters, strategy games, flight simulators).
- Its programmers can have a short amount of time (days, not months) to connect it to the game.
- It doesn't get a chance to practice, and has to play at least as well as an amateur human who also hasn't gotten a chance to practice (this might be very badly) and improve at a rate not too far off from the rate at which the amateur human improves (one OOM is fine, just not millions of times slower).
- As long as it can do this over 50% of the time, it's okay if there are a few games it can't learn.