If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason?
YZManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiThere was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI. 30.6%8 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
229
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis22 Şub 23 19:11 UTC1 Oca 00 08:00 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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KalshiKurallar
This market resolves once either of the following are true:
- AI seems about as intelligent as it's ever plausibly going to get.
- There appears to be no more significant danger from AI.
- It resolves to the option that seems closest to the explanation of why we didn't all die.
- If multiple reasons seem like they all significantly contributed, I may resolve to a mix among them.
- If you want to know what option a specific scenario would fall under, describe it to me and we'll figure out what it seems closest to.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 24s Hacim
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+8.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt59%
- ChatGPT+2.4pt26.7%
- Gemini+0.3pt5.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺513,3 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt78.4%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12.6%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺19,6 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-2.5pt53%
- 1500+-1.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
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Sık sorulan sorular
- If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla There was an alignment breakthrough allowing humanity to successfully build an aligned AI. için 31% fiyatlıyor.
- If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2200.
- If we survive general artificial intelligence, what will be the reason? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves once either of the following are true: