Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Guncelligini yitirmis3 Eyl 24 13:24 UTC1 Oca 00 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
Manifold MarketsIf ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it begin mining the moon within a year?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiKurallar
Artificial superintelligence (ASI) here means any artificial intelligence able to carry out any cognitive task better than 100% of the unenhanced biological human population.
- Safe-ish ASI here means ASI that does not wipe out humanity.
- Able here could mean actual agentic use, just a test demonstration, or just scientific theoretical proof of having that capability that is accepted as fact by the majority of the human scientific community.
- Hacking a mind here means sensory inputs that through mere exposure would involuntarily (regardless of previous desires/beliefs/precommitments) enable total predictable control of the mind (arbitrarily large changes of judgment/personality, lethal effects such as seizures etc).
- Examples in fiction include David Langford's BLITs/basilisks and SCP's memetic kill agents.
- It does not include persuasion with high-quality logical arguments, ordinary voluntary hypnosis with substantial cooperation and effort from the subject, generated fake content / illusions acting as false evidence for something, direct physical alteration of the mind itself, or coersion via threats / torture.
Açık piyasalar
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
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+3 daha fazla sonuç
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
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+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
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Sık sorulan sorular
- If safe-ish ASI is created, will it be able to hack human minds within a year? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 63% fiyatlıyor.
- If safe-ish ASI is created, will it be able to hack human minds within a year? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- If safe-ish ASI is created, will it be able to hack human minds within a year? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2100.
- If safe-ish ASI is created, will it be able to hack human minds within a year? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Artificial superintelligence (ASI) here means any artificial intelligence able to carry out any cognitive task better than 100% of the unenhanced biological human population.