If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year?
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Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
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PolymarketKurallar
Artificial superintelligence (ASI) here means any artificial intelligence able to carry out any cognitive task better than 100% of the unenhanced biological human population.
- Torture here means intentionally inflicting involuntary extreme suffering, unignorable to the victim, for more than 10% of a period longer than 1 minute.
- This is counterfactual to the perpetrator existing but taking no action, so it must be new suffering created, inaction and trade-offs for the unambiguous greater good don't count e.g. making someone upset by not being their best friend.
- In addition to unconditional torture, this includes punishment, such as for crimes, or for refusing orders.
- In addition, I mean the ASI independently and unilaterally deciding to do it, not being ordered by humans.
- Human-level-intelligence here means any conscious mind with equal or greater hedonic valence than the bottom 1% of the unenhanced biological human population.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 66% fiyatlıyor.
- If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2100.
- If ASI is created and doesn't wipe out humanity, will it torture any human-level-intelligences within a year? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Artificial superintelligence (ASI) here means any artificial intelligence able to carry out any cognitive task better than 100% of the unenhanced biological human population.