Will roko's basilisk end up happening by 2050?

₺11,6 B

Evet: 6%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2030?

₺10,6 B

Evet: 8%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Al achieve 95% or higher score on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2030?

₺5,1 B

Evet: 83.8%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?

₺308

United States: 61%

KALSHI

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

₺2

Before 2030: 46%

KALSHI

How many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?

₺5,3

At least 40: 58%

KALSHI

If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?