If China invades Taiwan in 2023-2030, what will FLOP/s per dollar of top-ML GPUs be 10 years later?
JeopolitikOne-OffÇin14y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini>8x FLOP/s per dollar 29%6 seçenek arasında lider
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Guncelligini yitirmis7 Kas 23 21:06 UTC15 Kas 40 07:59 UTC
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IE what wil the ratio of top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar 10 years after invasion be to top-ML GPU FLOP/s per dollar before invasion.
- I'll use the resolution criteria of this Metaculus question to operationalize invasion: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/?sub-question=10880f
- https://epochai.org/blog/trends-in-gpu-price-performance
