If AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?
YZOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 72.2%
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5
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Nis 26 17:28 UTC7 Nis 31 17:27 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
If AI has an okay outcome, was it because of humanity doing something beyond business-as-usual?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a huge alignment effort, where did AI progress stall out?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a pause, will the exit strategy involve a new AI paradigm?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
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Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves N/A if AI does not have an ok outcome, or if AI has an ok outcome because of a pause, human enhancement, a non-routine effort prioritizing alignment as a blocker on capabilities rather than happening alongside capabilities as a second priority, or some non-AI route to a transhumanist future.
- For example, if OpenAI or Anthropic's strategy worked, this market would not resolve N/A; they both have a "safety team" in a capabilities org, rather than a capabilities team in an alignment org, and are not pursuing alternate paths for a transhumanist future.
- Otherwise, resolves YES if alignment is easy, and NO otherwise. "Alignment is easy" means 6 or easier on the ten levels of alignment difficulty.
