Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 54.6%
Tahminciler
70
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
18 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis29 Eyl 25 13:03 UTC31 Ara 34 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if Greta Thunberg does any one of the following before January 1, 2035:
- Is listed as a signatory to a major AI safety or pause statement (e.g., Future of Life Institute's "Pause Giant AI Experiments" open letter, Center for AI Safety's "Statement on AI Risk")
- Is listed by an AI safety or pause organization (e.g., PauseAI, Future of Life Institute, Center for AI Safety) as a speaker, organizer, staff member, advisor, board member, or ambassador
- Publishes an explicit call for an AI pause/moratorium or endorses AI safety/pause goals, citing existential or societal risks and advocating for risk-first governance or a development pause
- Participates in a demonstration that primarily advocates for AI pause or AI safety goals
- This market does NOT resolve YES if:
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 55% fiyatlıyor.
- Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2034.
- Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if Greta Thunberg does any one of the following before January 1, 2035: