GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).
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Question written out without the abbreviations for clarity:
- GPT-5, if given scaffolding and inference-compute that is approximately equal to its training compute will achieve a capabilities advance of similar or greater magnitude than the capabilities advance from GPT-4 to GPT-5.
- Important! This question is assuming that the capabilities increase from GPT-4 to GPT-5 is at least as large as the increase from GPT-3 to GPT-4.
- If it is widely agreed that the capabilities increase from GPT-4 to GPT-5 is significantly smaller (e.g. because LLM scaling hits a ceiling), then the question will resolve N/A. This question is related to, but different from, my other question here: https://manifold.markets/NathanHelmBurger/will-gpt5-be-capable-of-recursive-s
- The discussion in the comments section on that question will give you more insight into my thinking, if that's something you want.