Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiBefore 2027-02-16 94.5%7 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
11
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+44.5 pts
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli28 Eki 26 15:52 UTC16 Şub 27 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
GPT 7 (OpenAI) release date
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Manifold MarketsBefore 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release GPT-7?
KalshiKurallar
The '+' means any version at or above 6.2 counts: if OpenAI skips 6.2 and releases GPT 6.3 or GPT 7, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called GPT 6.2, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.