Güncel topluluk tahmini
12h - 14h 19.6%10 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
17
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
7 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis21 May 26 19:08 UTC30 Eyl 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
DeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsKimi K3 Thinking METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
PolymarketWhen will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?
PolymarketKurallar
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Gemini 3.5 Pro model to appear on METR's graph.
- Gemini 3.5 Pro variants (Preview, GA, Deep Think) count for the purpose of this market.
- Gemini 3.1 Pro or earlier would not count.
- Gemini 4 would not count.
- Gemini 3.5 Flash would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 12h - 14h için 20% fiyatlıyor.
- Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 30 Eylül 2026.
- Gemini 3.5 Pro METR 50% time horizon nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Gemini 3.5 Pro model to appear on METR's graph.