Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 57.4%
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1
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binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis14 Nis 26 18:52 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model?
Manifold MarketsAny frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Full question: Will a frontier AI model (defined as any model by OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind) achieve a success rate of 50% or higher on the METR 'Rogue Replication' or 'RepliBench' autonomous replication evaluation tasks by December 31, 2027?
- Will a Frontier AI Model Achieve a 50% pass@1 Success Rate on Autonomous Replication Benchmarks by December 2027?
- Background Autonomous replication—the capability of an AI system to acquire resources, copy its own weights, and persist across compute environments—is a critical safety threshold.
- Standardized benchmarks to measure these risks include METR's 'Rogue Replication' tasks and the UK AI Safety Institute's (AISI) 'RepliBench'.
- As of April 2026, performance on these benchmarks has progressed rapidly.
- In May 2025, the UK AISI reported that Claude 3.7 Sonnet achieved a pass@10 success rate of over 50% on 15 out of 20 task families [92e1f4].
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 57% fiyatlıyor.
- Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2027.
- Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Full question: Will a frontier AI model (defined as any model by OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind) achieve a success rate of 50% or higher on the METR 'Rogue Replication' or 'RepliBench' autonomous replication evaluation tasks by December 31, 2027?