Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2040? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 29 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla No için 81.3% fiyatlıyor.

Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2040? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?

Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2040? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2040.

Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: -"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.

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2 Tem 23 22:51 UTC2 Oca 40 04:59 UTC

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-"Does": the main cause must have been the AI, not external circumstance.

-"an": the deaths must be from the same source, such as a glitch, misfire or AI attack (we won't combine unrelated disasters).
We'll include cumulative deaths over time (such as the same glitch killing people over several months), as long as it's credible that the deaths were caused by the same AI problem.
-"AI": must be a system (or multiple systems) that relied on artificial intelligence for its decisions.
-"disaster": the AI must've done something that most smart people would say is malicious, reckless, or poor judgement.
Unless the AI was correctly following orders by a human who we agree was authorized to give those orders, then that doesn't count.