Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiNo, nothing that creator considers wild happened 95%+45.0pt3 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
20
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+45.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
3 dakika önce güncellendi
14 Eyl 26 17:48 UTC14 Eki 26 17:45 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Sam Altman leave open AI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsThe American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave open AI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Rob Wiblin (@robertwiblin) on X
- This tweet suggest something wild just happened at Open AI.
- Fact or crap? What happened?
- Feel free to add other answer choices.
- I will not bet on this market as soon as I can figure out how to click the button that bans me from betting.
- Update 2026-09-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the RSI (Recursive Self-Improvement) option:
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,6 Mn
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-0.5pt16.4%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺535 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-14.3pt77%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 15 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No, nothing that creator considers wild happened için 95% fiyatlıyor.
- Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 14 Ekim 2026.
- Did Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Rob Wiblin (@robertwiblin) on X