Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 89.7%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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52 dakika önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli15 Eki 22 00:03 UTC31 Ara 29 16:01 UTC
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Resolves as YES if before 2030 the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party loses control of one or more provinces or Special Administrative Regions (SARs, e.g. Hong Kong, Macau) that were under their control during October 15, 2022.
- The intention of this question is to assess whether any part of China (as it was constituted on October 15, 2022) will secede, rebel, or be conquered by a foreign country before 2023.
- For example, if the international consensus is that the People's Republic of China is in a state of civil war and rebel forces control a province or SAR, then this question will resolve as YES, even if the rebel leaders are also CCP members.
- Control over Taiwan is irrelevant for the purposes of this question because all parties agree that Taiwan is not under CCP control as of October 15, 2022.
