[Carlini questions] Chance one can purchase off-the-shelf robot for under 100k$ that can do manipulation
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25 Eki 2026 19:45 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiBy 2030 87.1%
Tahminciler
10
Soru türü
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
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14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Mar 25 01:47 UTC1 Oca 30 23:59 UTC
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Full question: "chance that I will be able to purchase an off-the-shelf robot for under USD 100,000 that can perform at least one household task that requires the ability to grasp and manipulate objects (e.g., wash dishes, make a meal, fold laundry)"
- Resolution Criteria:
- You actually have to be able to buy this thing, and it has to work most of the time (roughly as often as a reasonably competent, non-expert human).
- I don't need "high-end restaurant chef"; a "reasonable home cook" is good enough.
- It also doesn't have to be as fast as a human, but it has to be able to achieve the end goal to a reasonable degree of correctness.
- So: it's okay to take five minutes to fold a single shirt, as long as if I start it in the morning and when I get back from work, all my laundry is folded properly.