By the end of 2050, what will my best guess be for the number of people that have died from climate change since 2000?
72.3 puan (24s)JeopolitikOne-OffHava Durumu
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Other 27.7%-72.3pt10 seçenek arasında lider
Other 27.7%-72.3ptTahminciler
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
7g Değişim
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10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Mar 23 00:53 UTC2 Oca 51 00:53 UTC
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I will only resolve YES answers created by order of magnitude (edit: OR <10K, which includes negative numbers)
- EG: 10K-100K, 100K-1M, 1M-10M, 10M-100M, etc. Please do not add answers that deviate from this format.
- I will not count effects that route through social effects of climate change.
- EG I will not count "climate-change related mass immigration increases social instability which is partially responsible for a war in which people die".
- I will count effects like "climate change caused high temperatures in a region which caused people to be more likely to die from sickness."
