Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 75.7%
Tahminciler
11
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
7 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis27 Şub 24 12:44 UTC1 Oca 28 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the first mention of Manifold in mainstream news be positive?
Manifold MarketsFlorentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketAI capability growth this year?
KalshiKurallar
A famous person in this case is anyone who has a Wikipedia page.
- Although most people who would have a deepfake made of them are most likely to be famous so I’m not anticipating this to be a random person with a Wikipedia page.
- A deepfake will count even if the organizations backtrack if they originally reported it as a real video then it counts.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- By the end of 2027 will a deepfake of a famous person be reported as real by mainstream news organizations için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 76% fiyatlıyor.
- By the end of 2027 will a deepfake of a famous person be reported as real by mainstream news organizations ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- By the end of 2027 will a deepfake of a famous person be reported as real by mainstream news organizations için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2028.
- By the end of 2027 will a deepfake of a famous person be reported as real by mainstream news organizations nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: A famous person in this case is anyone who has a Wikipedia page.