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In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsMulti year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
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IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover".
- It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good.
- The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
- On June 30th, 2027, I'll try to ask @ScottAlexander if he thinks such a capability already exists.
- If he's unavailable/unwilling to adjudicate, I'll defer to my best understanding of the criteria.
- I reserve the right to resolve N/A or wait until Scott clarifies the criteria if there is significant ambiguity.