By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?
One-OffYZSağlık ve Tıp3yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 90.4%
Tahminciler
60
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Eki 23 12:05 UTC2 Oca 30 04:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Derek Thompson asks the question here: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1708875151373172856.
- Responses incluude multiple predictions that the answer will be no.
- So, market, obviously.
- Resolves to YES if LLMs have a bigger economic impact on the economy by 2030 than GLP-1 receptors, NO otherwise.
- If the answer to this question is non-obvious even in 2030 after I examine the economic data, I will ask an economist or similar expert.
- If the answer is obvious in advance - defined as persistant weeks-long market price of <5% or >95% with little activity, where I also see no plausible way for the answer to still change, I will resolve this market early.
