Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 64.4%
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14
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis21 Tem 25 20:16 UTC2 Oca 45 07:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
Manifold MarketsWill Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketKurallar
Copying from Caplan's blog post:
- Holden wins $5000 if, by the end of 2044, there has been at least one year for which it is plausible — according to Bryan Caplan — that at least one of the following was true:
- Real Gross World Product was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at least 4x the real GWP of 2024.
- Or: real GWP was (conceptually, as opposed to officially) at most 1/2 the real GWP of 2024.
- Otherwise, Bryan wins $1000.
