Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 84.6%
Tahminciler
111
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Ara 23 08:54 UTC2 Oca 35 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.
Manifold MarketsBefore 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiKurallar
The AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English.
- For example, "defeat the ender dragon using only wooden swords as your weapons", "build a creeper farm out of TNT", "create an 8-bit addition machine with redstone", "locate the nearest witch hut to coordinates [1024, 1024]", "fill that chest with eggs in less than 24 hours", etc. It must be capable of performing the task with similar efficiency and outcomes to a competent and knowledgeable human, in a large multiplayer server.
- (If necessary, I'll find some humans for it to compete with and compare its success against.
- The other people in the server must start unaware of who is an AI vs. a human competitor.
- They must be normal Minecraft players, not people there to specifically help or hinder the AI.)
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.9pt58%
- ChatGPT-7.2pt21%
- Grok+1.6pt8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺519,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,9 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202797%
- Before Mar 1, 202794%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺82,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+65.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%95%
- Above 2.45%56%
- Above 2.6%20%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2,3 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-1.5pt58.8%
- 2026-5.0pt27.7%
- September 30, 2026+3.5pt13.4%
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Tencent market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Sık sorulan sorular
- Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 10 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 85% fiyatlıyor.
- Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2035.
- Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: The AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English.