Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?
YZOne-Off3ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 91.5%
Tahminciler
3
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis20 Eyl 25 21:56 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Manifold MarketsWill Microsoft train and release a frontier model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
OpenAI released this paper arguing that one of the reasons LLMs hallucinate is because their post training incentives them to guess when they don't know the answer to a question.
- They suggest penalizing LLMs for answering a question incorrectly instead of claiming ignorance.
- https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.04664
- Resolves yes if OpenAI (or an OpenAI employee) claims a Frontier Model released by them was trained using this technique.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 92% fiyatlıyor.
- Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Before 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: OpenAI released this paper arguing that one of the reasons LLMs hallucinate is because their post training incentives them to guess when they don't know the answer to a question.