At the end of the Myanmar Civil War, who will control a plurality of the population of Myanmar?
PolitikaOne-OffSeçimJeopolitik
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
State Administration Council or successor military junta 35.1%6 seçenek arasında lider
State Administration Council or successor military junta 35.1%Tahminciler
9
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
17 dakika önce güncellendi
18 Ara 23 23:47 UTC26 Ara 00 07:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
The population of Myanmar are the people living in the pre-war borders of Myanmar.
- I will use my best judgement to determine how this resolves if the coalitions I specified merged in weird ways.
- For example, is a group of EAGs join the State Administration Council and their combined territories are governed together with meaningful but not total SAC control, I'll call that a successor junta.
- If these two groups ally but the SAC has no ability to enforce laws in the EAC territory then I'll consider that an EAC coalition.
- Majority democratic/no democratic is determined by fraction of people within the coalition who can participate in elections about as free as the last pre-war election.
- I'll determine that the war has ended if there is a treaty resolution to the war between >70% of combatants by estimated headcount, if there is an effective ceasefire between such a group for longer than a year, if one group is widely considered to have won the war in international press, or if the war is widely considered over in the international press.
