At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
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Guncelligini yitirmis14 Mar 23 20:29 UTC1 Oca 35 08:00 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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PolymarketKurallar
If Eliezer believes that there's at least a 75% chance of an AI existential risk coming to pass within the next 50 years, this resolves YES.
- (Other interpretations of p(doom) don't matter.)
- I'll resolve the market based on public statements from them in the previous and subsequent few months.
- Eliezer doesn't like putting explicit probabilities on this, so I'll attempt to infer their beliefs from their more subjective statements.
- Resolves N/A in the event that Eliezer is no longer alive/conscious or AI doom has already occurred.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 55% fiyatlıyor.
- At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2035.
- At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: If Eliezer believes that there's at least a 75% chance of an AI existential risk coming to pass within the next 50 years, this resolves YES.