Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 71.2%
Tahminciler
8
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
20 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis22 Eki 25 13:43 UTC31 Ara 28 23:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Must be a state of the art model (probably in the top 8), used by millions of people, not just a research project.
- The guiding principle is that the market will resolve to YES if humans are able to follow the thinking process the AI is using.
- This would likely include cases where:
- The AI's thinking is a mixture of modalities (e.g., image, video, and text), as long as they're comprehensible to humans.
- This would not include cases where the AI mostly thinks in "neuralese" latent space vectors, recurrent activations, incomprehensible image/video streams, or the model thinks in text but the text switches languages, uses whitespace meaningfully &c.
- If in doubt I'll make the call.
