Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 62.7%
Tahminciler
51
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis29 May 24 00:00 UTC1 Oca 31 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
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KalshiKurallar
This is an attempt to forecast a realistic scenario where AI would be actually doing good (or at least interesting) philosophy by the end of 2030.
- Due to this aim, it is very specific.
- Gaston Bachelard was a French philosopher active in the first half of the 20th century.
- For the purposes of this market what matters is that he wrote five books on the psychoanalysis of the elements, i.e. fire, water, earth and air.
- Earth got two books for some reason.
- These books are a mix between a relatively detailed work of scholarship and psychoanalytical interpretation.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
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Sık sorulan sorular
- AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 63% fiyatlıyor.
- AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2031.
- AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This is an attempt to forecast a realistic scenario where AI would be actually doing good (or at least interesting) philosophy by the end of 2030.