Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 61.9% em 27 de outubro de 2026.

Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados

Dados de 27 de out. de 2026, 03:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 61.9%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado ontem

Desatualizado

9/01/23, 18:13 UTC1/01/28, 07:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.