Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Yes (39.9%)
Resolvido: 8 de ago. de 2026, 13:42
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 60.1%
Previsores
4
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 dias
Desatualizado14/07/26, 12:507/08/26, 21:00
Tendências
60.1%
39.9%
Regras
Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).
- Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
- Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
- The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
- Resolves YES iff Spearman ρ ≥ 0.90 for eigenvector AND out-degree centrality, ρ < 0.85 for betweenness, AND ≥ 8 of the top-10 eigenvector states shared.
- (Compound = the registered "HOLD" criterion; betweenness reshuffling is part of the forecast.)
