Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 86.8%
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado1/01/26, 14:38 UTC30/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
TLDR: If another similar blackout (such as the one from April 2025), happens before the end of 2026, it resolves YES.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Spain experiences a nationwide blackout affecting mainland peninsular Spain (excluding islands), that affects a significant portion of the country's electricity grid.
- Resolution will be based on official statements from Red Eléctrica (Spain's grid operator) or Spanish government sources confirming a nationwide blackout event.
- The market resolves NO if no such event occurs by the end date.
- On April 28, 2025, a major power blackout occurred across the Iberian Peninsula affecting mainland Portugal and peninsular Spain, where electric power was interrupted for about ten hours in most of the Peninsula and longer in some areas.
