Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 89.7%
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13
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado2/04/26, 15:04 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
Will there be an assassination attempt on JD Vance before the end of 2026? In addition to death or injury, this also includes a clearly documented attempt from which Vance escapes unharmed.
- Update 2026-04-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is not yet resolving this market following an incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.
- The creator believes Trump was more likely the intended target rather than Vance, and will wait for investigation results before resolving YES or NO.
- Update 2026-04-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not resolve YES based on the April 25, 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner incident.
- The attacker's manifesto targeted "Administration officials" by rank, with Trump as the primary target — Vance was not specifically or individually targeted.
- The creator is applying a narrow interpretation: a general threat against a group does not trigger a person-specific assassination attempt market.
