Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 82.2%
Previsores
26
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado9/02/24, 15:26 UTC1/01/30, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be a terrorist attack deadlier than October 7th before 2030
Manifold MarketsWill any single terrorist attack in a Western nation kill more than 20,000 people before 2030?
Manifold MarketsThe next major foreign terrorist attack in the US will be at
Manifold MarketsWill there be a terrorist attack, shooting, or another mass casualty incident at a gaming event in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 29, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Oct 29, 2026?
KalshiRegras
Doesn't necessarily have to kill anyone, but should have substantial shock value through destruction of property or similar (i.e. significantly above the current gluing-to-things protests).
- Shorter-term version:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Thomas42/will-there-be-a-terrorist-attack-mo)Terrorism is notoriously ill-defined.
- For this market I define it as the intentional use of violence to achieve a political goal, in this case a goal related to climate change.
- So actually blowing up a refinery is violence and counts, but sabotaging by drilling a hole in a pipe is not.