Will there be a new major longtermist funder before the end of 2024?
One-OffManifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: No (89.5%)
Resolvido: 1 de jan. de 2025, 16:46
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 15 de out. de 2026, 13:55 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes10.5%
No89.5%
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Perdeu
Regras
Will a donor who is not currently widely known give ≥$50 million to longtermist or existential risk causes or organizations before the end of 2024, and be expected to continue giving ≥$50 million per year?
- I will only count donations or grants, not impact investments.
- I will count something as a longtermist if it seems like the kind of thing the Long-Term Future Fund or Open Phil's longtermist budget might plausibly fund.
- I will resolve this question at my discretion in whichever way seems most correct to me.
- I may trade in this market, but promise to carefully make sure not to let my position affect the way I resolve this market.