Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?

A Manifold Markets cota No em 56% em 9 de agosto de 2026.

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Este mercado foi resolvido: Yes (43.7%)

Resolvido: 8 de ago. de 2026, 13:42

Resolução verificada pelo provedor

A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 56.3%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 12 dias

Desatualizado

14/07/26, 13:077/08/26, 21:00

Tendências

Não

56.3%

Sim

43.7%

Regras

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

MiningOne-Off

Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Este mercado foi resolvido: Yes (43.7%)

Resolvido: 8 de ago. de 2026, 13:42

Resolução verificada pelo provedor

A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 56.3%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 12 dias

Desatualizado

14/07/26, 13:077/08/26, 21:00

Tendências

Não

56.3%

Sim

43.7%

Regras

Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Thresholds were locked before any cross-year number was computed, committed publicly with SHA-256 cd25810026b8053aad446aa0a6e3a3050642c1cf492d988dc02e3db185bc30e1 (repo: github.com/rsthornton/us-trade-centrality).
Resolution is mechanical: computed by deterministic scripted code on public federal CFS data (2017 → 2022), against the registered criterion below.
The creator will not bet in this market and resolves to the published verdict table.
Resolves YES iff Jaccard similarity of the backbone edge sets (top third of edges by value) ≥ 0.80.
Proposal: https://www.researchhub.com/proposal/32374/the-interstate-power-observatory-a-pre-registered-forecast-of-us-trade-network-centrality-20122022 Dashboard: tradeflows.halcyonic.systems

Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)?: A Manifold Markets cota No em 56% em 9 de agosto de 2026.
Quando Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) é resolvido?: Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) deverá ser resolvido em 7 de agosto de 2026.
Como Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022) é liquidado?: A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Pre-registered forecast from The Interstate Power Observatory (ResearchHub proposal #32374).

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

Will the U.S. interstate-trade backbone survive COVID? (H2-P, 2017→2022)

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