Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 60%
Previsores
74
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado23/02/24, 20:37 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
[image]I will create polls on Manifold and the ACX discord.
- To address survivorship bias, if the musical never happens, I will ask the creators why not.
- If they say that they cancelled it because it was going to be too hard to make it any good, I will resolve NO.
- If it was shelved for any other reason, I will resolve N/A. THE FINE PRINT:
- When summing results of multiple polls I will weigh the two equally, not in proportion to # of respondents.
Mercados abertos
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- SaWaDiKa (Official Music Video)1%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will the Unsong musical be good??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 60% em 15 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will the Unsong musical be good? é resolvido?
- Will the Unsong musical be good? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como Will the Unsong musical be good? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: [image]I will create polls on Manifold and the ACX discord.